非参数回归法在孔隙度参数预测中的应用

目前有很多利用地震属性进行储层参数预测的方法,多数方法都是针对一种特定的参数模型而制定的统计方法,即只有在一定的参数模型中才能使用的统计方法.实际应用中,由于地震属性与储层参数之间的关系十分复杂,事先无法给出合适的、具体的参数模型,使用参数模型就有可能产生较大误差.本文简要介绍了非参数回归预测方法的基本原理和方法特点,对如何分析和选取具有明确物理意义的、反映储层参数横向变化较为敏感的、与储层参数关系较为密切的地震属性进行了讨论.用非参数回归法对大港唐家河工区进行了孔隙度参数的平面分布预测,表明该方法在储层参数预测技术以及油藏描述中将会有广阔的应用前景.

NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION APPLIED IN POROSITY PARAMETER PREDICTION

There are many reservoir parameter prediction methods which use seismic attributes. Most of them are statistical methods designed according to a specific parametric model, which means they can be used only in a parametric model. In the actual applications of reservoir parameter prediction using seismic attributes, parametric model may result in great errors if the proper parametric model can not be given on account of the very complicated relationship between reservoir parameters and seismic attributes. This paper has briefly introduced a basic principle and characteristics of the nonparametric regression analysis, and discussed how to analyze and select these seismic attributes which have clear physical meanings, sensitively reflect the lateral variations of reservoir parameters and have good relations with reservoir parameters. The porosity plane distribution has been predicted in Tangjiahe area, the Dagang Oil Field. It has been proved by actual examples that this method will be widely used in the prediction of reservoir parameters and in the characterization of reservoir.