Evaluation of the change in dominant periods in the lake-bed zone of Mexico City produced by ground subsidence through the use of site amplification factors

We compute site amplification functions for several sites in Mexico City using actual accelerograms recorded from 1985 to 2010 and we present field evidence of the change in the dominant period of a given site (T_s) as a consequence of ground subsidence produced by groundwater withdrawal. The changes in T_s are larger in the lake-bed zone where thicker clay deposits exist, although there are sites in the southwest part of the lake-bed zone where T_s has remained constant. With the information obtained from the site amplification functions and available geotechnical soundings we develop an empirical model to estimate the future value of T_s for several sites in Mexico City. Because the practical application of the model requires extrapolation we also present a method to compute the uncertainty of the model when it is used to forecast a future value of T_s at a given site. Our results suggest that significant changes in the dominant period at several sites in Mexico City can be expected in the future.