Probabilistic evaluation of seismically induced permanent deformation of slopes |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Civil Engineering, Pusan National University, 30 Jangjeon-dong, Geumjeong-gu, Busan 609-735, Republic of Korea;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1710, USA;1. Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;2. Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;1. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China;2. CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;3. China-Pakistan Joint Research Centre on Earth Sciences, CAS-HEC, Islamabad, Pakistan;4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;5. Department of Civil Engineering School of Human Settlement and Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710049, China;6. School of Mines and Civil Engineering, Liupanshui Normal University, Liupanshui 553000, China |
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| Abstract: | A probabilistic approach that can systematically model various sources of uncertainty involved in the assessment of seismically induced permanent deformations of slopes is presented. This approach incorporates probabilistic concepts into the classical-limit equilibrium and Newmark-type deformation analysis and the risk of damage is then computed by Monte Carlo simulations. The spatial variability of the material properties and the uncertainty arising from insufficient information are treated in the framework of random fields. The uncertainty of seismic loading is modeled by generating a large series of hazard-compatible artificial motions. This approach provides a consistent level of risk within the time period of interest. The results of the case analyses show that the uncertainty of the soil properties can have a significant impact on the computed risk of failure for a slope with spatially correlated soil properties exposed to relatively low levels of seismic hazard (RMS<0.1–0.2 g); however, it appears to have little impact on the computed risk if the slope is exposed to relatively high hazard levels (RMS>0.1–0.2 g). |
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