Probabilistic hazard analysis of Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) Volcano, eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt

Citlaltépetl or Pico de Orizaba is the highest active volcano in the North American continent. Although Citlaltépetl is at present in repose, its eruptive history reveals repetitive explosive eruptions in the past. Its relatively low eruption rate has favored significant population growth in areas that may be affected by a potential eruptive activity. The need of some criteria for hazards assessment and land-use planning has motivated the use of statistical methods to estimate the time and space distribution of volcanic hazards around this volcano. The analysis of past activity, from late Pleistocene to historic times, and the extent of some well-identified deposits are used to calculate the recurrence probabilities of eruptions of various size during time periods useful for land-use planning.