新疆和田地区水资源利用的可持续性分析

基于和田地区2005年社会经济、水资源和生态环境等资料，选取21项指标构建评价指标体系，采用基于熵权的集对分析法和聚类分析法对和田地区水资源可持续利用进行评价与分析。结果表明和田地区民丰县为可持续水平，其他区域则为弱不可持续和不可持续水平。聚类分析结果显示和田地区水资源可持续利用制约类型可归为4类: 可持续型（民丰县），受制于人口的无河型（皮山县），受制于水资源配置型（策勒县）和受制于人口的有河型（和田河流域，于田县，和田地区）。

ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCES SUSTAINABLE UTILIZATION IN THE HOTAN REGION, XINJIANG

Water resources sustainable utilization (WRSU) is a reasonable utilization style of water resources.It will coordinate the development of the system composed of eco-society,water resources and eco-environment.In North West China,the climate is dry,the water resources are lack,and the eco-environment is weak,while the eco-society is undeveloped and the natural growth rate of population is high.In order to develop the eco-society and meet its needs,the demand of water resources will increase.But the limited water resources become obstacles of sustainable development of the eco-society and stabilization of the weak eco-environment.So achieving WRSU is urgent for arid and semiarid lands in North West China.As a basic study of WRSU,it is very important for these regions to evaluating WRSU.The study region of this paper is located in the extremely drought region in the south of the Tarim River plain in Xinjiang.There the supply of water resources is insufficient,and with the influence of exploiting water and land resources,the eco-environment in Hotan region becomes worse and worse.So such an evaluation is essential in the Hotan region.Based on the statistical data of eco-society,water resources and eco-environment from the yearbook of the Hotan region in 2005,a system of evaluating WRSU was set up.WRSU is correlated to many factors,but the correlation between each two elements is uncertain.Considering this characteristic and the feature of set pair analysis(SPA) in dealing with an uncertain system,SPA,combined with the entropy weight method,was applied to evaluate WRSU of the Hotan region,and also Hierarchical Cluster Analysis(HCA) was applied.The results show that the utilization of water resources of the Hotan region has basically reached to a saturation.In detail,for WRSU,the result of is as follows:Minfeng(Ⅰ)>Yutian (Ⅲ)>Hotan Region (Ⅲ)>Hotan River Basin (Ⅳ)>Pishan (Ⅳ)>Qira(Ⅳ).For the eco-society system,the result is as follows:Minfeng(Ⅱ)>Qira(Ⅲ)>Yutian (Ⅲ)>Hotan Region(Ⅳ)>Hotan River Basin(Ⅳ)>Pishan(Ⅳ).For the water resources system,the result is as follows:Minfeng(Ⅰ)>Yutian(Ⅲ)>Qira(Ⅲ)>Hotan Region(Ⅲ)>Hotan River Basin(Ⅲ)>Pishan(Ⅳ).And for the eco-environment system,the result is as ffollos:Pishan(Ⅲ)>Hotan Region(Ⅳ)>Hotan River Basin(Ⅳ)>Yutian (Ⅳ)>Minfeng(Ⅳ)>Qira(Ⅳ).Based on the result of HCA,the restricted type of WRSU can be classified into 4 types:sustainable(Minfeng),restricted by population without river(Pishan),restricted by the allocation of water resources supply(Qira),restricted by population with river (Hotan River baisn,Yutian,Hotan region).At last,according to the results of evaluation and HCA,a series of measurements were put forward.