海南省芒果寒害气象指数保险费率厘定及保险合同设计研究

寒害严重影响和制约海南芒果种植业的发展,芒果寒害气象指数保险费率的厘定及其合同设计对于转移灾害风险、减少农民损失、促进海南经济发展具有重大意义。利用海南省18个市(县)1990-2010年的芒果产量数据和1961-2010年的气象数据,基于极值理论构建产量风险分布模型,厘定了各市(县)的纯保险费率及其空间分布。结果表明:纯保险费率高值区主要分布在中部山区的五指山、琼中和白沙,以及北部的澄迈,其中白沙最高,这些地区芒果寒害风险较高,且种植技术或防灾减灾能力较差,建议采用高免赔额费率;纯保险费率低值区主要分布在南部和东部,其中南部三亚和陵水无寒害,其他市(县)寒害风险较低,建议实行低免赔额费率。同时,设计了基于不同免赔额的保险产品及合同,可为海南建立和完善芒果政策性农业保险方案提供技术支撑。

Determination of the Premium Rate Based on the Weather Indices of Chilling Injury in Mangoes and Contract Design in Hainan Province

Chilling injuries severely affect and restrict the mango production in Hainan.Accordingly,study on the determination of premium rates based on weather indices and the design of contracts will be of great significance for transferring disaster risks,reducing the losses of planters and promoting the economic developments in Hainan.Using the mango yield data from 1990 to 2010 as well as the meteorological data from 1961 to 2010 in Hainan,the yield risk distribution model was developed using the extreme value theory.Subsequently,the pure premium rates in the 18 cities or counties and its spatial distribution were determined.The results indicate that: the high value regions of pure premium rates are in the central mountainous regions such as Wuzhishan,Qiongzhong and Baisha as well as in the northern regions such as Chengmai,while Baisha is the highest.The chilling injury risks in these regions are higher and the planting technology or the disaster prevention and reduction capabilities are poor.The deductibles in these regions should be high.The pure premium rates are comparatively low in the southern and eastern regions,there is no chilling injury in Sanya and Lingshui in the south.In other counties or cities,the chilling injury risks are low,and the insurance products with low deductible should be sold.The insurance contracts based on the weather indices with different deductibles are designed at different regions with different risks.They can provide technical supports for the establishment and improvement of agricultural insurance schemes for mango in Hainan.