中国典型季风海洋性冰川区"冰川-径流"系统的全球变化敏感性研究

分析多种数据和资料,再现海螺沟冰川过去100年来的冰川进退过程,分析发现,冰川末端变化阶段在滞后期的基础上,与北半球和中国气温变化的阶段相对应。运用水量-物质平衡法恢复海螺沟冰川45年来的物质平衡变化情况,通过相关性检验发现,物质平衡变化与北半球和中国同期(1960~2004年)气温变化表现出显著负相关。20世纪80年代全球加速变暖,海螺沟冰川冰舌段消融速率为7.86 m/a,冰川河径流量年际和季节变化表明流量主要贡献者是冰雪融水。分析表明,全球变暖是冰川后退、持续亏损及径流量增加的主要原因。

Response of "Glaciers-Runoff" System in a Typical Temperate-Glacier, Hailuogou Glacier in Gongga Mountain of China to Global Change

The monsoonal temperate glaciers in China are located in the region of the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and these monsoonal temperate glaciers have obvious response to global change.This study takes "glacier-runoff" system of the Bingchuan River Basin of Hailuogou in Gongga Mountain region as research object,because this area has abundant information and data about glacier change.The research have found two important results:(1) The glaciers in Gongga Mountain have sensitive response to global warming since the early of the 20th century,based on glacier-variation data and mass balance data over the past 100 years;(2) glacial runoff has also sensitively corresponded to global warming since the 1980s,as indicated by observed hydrological and climatic data. In conclusion,there is a "glacier-runoff-global change" organism in monsoonal temperate glacier region of China,therefore,"glacier-runoff" system is very sensitive to global change.And what's more,the result indicated that global changing is the main cause of glaciers retreat,glaciers ablation and runoff rise.