Global changes in the seismic regime and water surface level of the earth

Substantial changes in the seismic regime of the Earth during 1982–1993 are revealed on the basis of a new methodological approach to the study of the development of global seismogeodynamic processes. These changes are a more than threefold decrease in the recurrence rate of large earthquakes in the magnitude intervals M = 8.5 ± 0.2, M = 8.0 ± 0.2, M = 7.5 ± 0.2, and M = 7.0 ± 0.2 and a very intense activation of global seismicity after this relative seismic quiescence. Joint investigations of seismogeodynamic and hydrogeodynamic processes allowed us to reveal a certain synchronism between changes in the seismic regime of the Earth and the ocean water surface level. In this paper, we continue the search for a relation between changes in the regional seismicity and the level of closed water basins (with the Caspian Sea as an example), as well as investigations of the processes in individual seismic sources, in order to elaborate earthquake prediction methods. Hypotheses on the nature of the discovered phenomena are put forward, and structural phenomenological models are proposed. In particular, these correlated seismic and hydrologic phenomena are interpreted in terms of specific features of the seismogeodynamic regime in subduction zones on the periphery of the Pacific and Indian oceans.