吉林省重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险预评估

利用吉林省50县市1951-2013年逐日降水资料、暴雨灾情损失数据，1：5万DEM数据、水系、TM遥感卫星影像资料以及GDP、人口等数据，探讨了吉林省重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险的主要影响因素，确立了各因素的权重系数，构建了吉林省重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险评估模型.利用过程预报降雨量对2013年8月14-17日的重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险进行了预评估.结果表明：重大暴雨过程灾害损失综合风险的高值区分布在四平、辽源大部以及长春、吉林、通化城区附近，风险偏高区位于中南部，西部地区和东北部地区为中低风险区.灾害损失风险评估模型预评估效果良好，可在实际的暴雨过程灾害损失风险预评估业务中使用，由于通过该模型的评估结果可迅速圈定各级洪涝风险区，对提高重大暴雨过程应对能力、减少灾害损失以及防灾减灾意义重大.

The risk pre-estimation of the flood casualty loss caused by heavy rainstorm in Jilin Province

Utilizing daily precipitation data from 50 weather stations from 1951 through 2013,information of the casualty loss caused by the heavy rainstorm flood,1∶50 000 DEM and hydrological data,TM images and rela-tive social economic information,the main factors of flood disasters caused by heavy rainstorm in Jilin Province were analyzed,and the weight coefficients of each factor on the flood risk assessment was established. By using GIS technology,heavy rainstorm disasters risk in Jilin Province was assessed and regionalized by the indicators relating to the amount and intensity of rainstorms,sensitivity of environment to floods,prevention and resis-tance ability to disasters. Using the forecasted precipitation,risk of the heavy rainstorm flood disaster in August 14- 17,2013 in Jilin Province was estimated preliminary,and the damaged zones of all levels were divided. The results show that the high risk zones were located mostly in Siping,Liaoyuan and the urban areas of Changc-hun,Jilin,Tonghua cities;spatially,the higher risk zones were located in the center and south of the province, followed by the west,and then the northeast. The risk pre-estimation of the flood casualty loss caused by heavy rainstorm has better feasibility,which can be used in practice. Thus the flood risk zones of all levels can be rapid-ly framed. It is useful for prevention and avoiding flood risk of heavy rainstorm and is significant for improving the ability against heavy rainstorm flood disasters and the capacity of disaster mitigation.