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Managing the transition to climate stabilization |
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| Authors: | RICHARD G. RICHELS THOMAS F. RUTHERFORD GEOFFREY J. BLANFORD LEON CLARKE |
| Affiliation: | 1. Electric Power Research Institute , 2000 L Street NW, Washington, DC, 20036, USA;2. Federal Institute of Technology, Department of Management, Technology, and Economics , ETH Zentrum, Zurichbergstrasse 18, CH-8032, Zurich, Switzerland;3. 3420 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, CA, 94304, USA;4. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , Joint Global Change Research Institute , 8400 Baltimore Avenue, College Park, MD, 20740, USA |
| Abstract: | It is becoming increasingly clear that economically efficient climate policies are unlikely to be implemented in the near term. Therefore an analysis is warranted that considers the implications of certain suboptimal transition policies. This analysis constructs a transition scenario based on realistic assumptions about the current trends in policy-making. The transition is examined in the context of varying assumptions about the stringency of the target and the availability of low- or no-carbon energy technologies in the future. In addition to evaluating the effects of suboptimal policies, the transitional analysis offers new insights about the intrinsic uncertainty regarding both the appropriate stabilization target and technology. |
| Keywords: | climate change economic efficiency energy policy analysis research and development technology assessment |