Climate change and total factor productivity in the Tanzanian economy |
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Authors: | Mintewab Bezabih Muyeye Chambwera |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Economics , University of Portsmouth , Portland Street, Portsmouth , PO1 3DE , UK;2. Economics of Climate Change Team, Sustainable Markets Group , International Institute for Environment and Development , 3 Endsleigh Street, London , WC1H 0DD , UK |
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Abstract: | The economic impacts of climate-change-induced adjustments on the performance of the Tanzanian economy are analysed, using a countrywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The effect of overall climate change on agricultural productivity (modelled as reduced land productivity) is projected to be relatively limited until about 2030, thereafter becoming worse. The simulation results indicate that despite the projected reduction in agricultural productivity, the negative impacts can potentially be quite limited. This is because the timescales involved, as well as the low starting point of the economy, leave ample room for factor substitutability and increased overall productivity. This indicates that policies that give farmers the opportunity to invest in autonomous climate adaptation, as well as those that improve the overall performance of the economy, can be as important in reducing the impacts of climate change in the economy as direct government policies for adaptation. |
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Keywords: | adaptation policy Africa economic development economic models Tanzania |
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