| 巴州北部山区汛期降水趋势的时间序列预测法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张月华. 巴州北部山区汛期降水趋势的时间序列预测法[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象), 2004, 27(2): 18-19,22 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张月华 |
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| 作者单位： | 巴州气象台 新疆库尔勒841000 |
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| 摘 要： | 用时间序列法分析了巴音布鲁克、巴仑台两地汛期各阶段的降水规律，并做出预报方程、进行历史检验，结果表明拟合效果较好，说明这种预测方法有一定的实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水趋势 时间序列 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0799(2004)02-0018-02 |
Predicting the Tendency of Precipitation with Time Series Method in Northern Mountain Area |
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| ZHANG Yue-hua. Predicting the Tendency of Precipitation with Time Series Method in Northern Mountain Area[J]. Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology, 2004, 27(2): 18-19,22 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yue-hua |
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| Abstract: | The tendency of precipitation in Bayinbuluke and Baluntai mountains were analysised with time series method.Predicting equation was given .The relationship between predictand and real data are better .It is shown that this predicting method has applied value . |
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| Keywords: | the tendency of precipitation time series forecast |
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