都市边缘区农村集资房时空演进特征及驱动机制 ——以20世纪90年代广州白云区为例

基于ArcGIS、SPSS分析平台，以广州白云区为例，对农村集资房项目的空间分布特征及影响因素进行了梳理。ArcGIS空间分析结果表明：1）农村集资房空间生产时空演进由“点状”发展走向“交通线状”蔓延，农村集资房空间生产对交通干线的依赖性明显；2）农村集资房空间生产表现出明显的空间集聚性，农村集资房项目相对所属镇街行政中心的空间集聚效应由于区位的不同而存在差别。通过SPSS数理分析发现：1）农村集资房市场发展与商品房市场发展水平存在正相关性，农村集资房开发与房地产市场发展相伴相随；2）政策是农村集资房时空演进的另一重要影响因素，左右着农村集资房的发展方向。政府力（权力）、市场力（资本）和社区力（抗争）等3种力在不同时期作用方向有所不同，推动着农村集资房的形成与发展。

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Rural Jizifang in Urban Fringe and the Driving Mechanisms:A Case Study of the Baiyun District,Guangzhou

Employing the software of ArcGIS and SPSS, the paper, through a case study of Baiyun district, Guangzhou, explores the spatial distribution patterns of houses built with funds collected by the buyers (the so-called rural Jizifang in China) and the underlying determinants. The spatial analysis by ArcGis shows: 1) the spatio-temporal distribution of the Jizifang evolves from “dispersed patches” to “linear extension along traffic lines”. The spatial distribution greatly depends on the traffic routes; 2) the Jizifang tends to agglomerate around the administrative center of town and disperse with the distance to the center. The quantitative analysis through Spss finds: 1) the development of the Jizifang is positively correlated with the marketization degree of commercial housing; 2) policy is another important factor affecting the spatio-temporal patterns of the Jizifang and determines the tendency of its development. The forces of government, market, and community interact to push forward the formation and development of the Jizifang.