| 神农架森林火灾发生率的长期预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨贤为,张强.神农架森林火灾发生率的长期预报[J].气象,1995,21(12):42-44. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨贤为 张强 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气象科技应用开发研究基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对神农架林区１９７０－１９９１年的森林火灾资料和前期青藏高原月平均气温的相关分析，建立该区３－５月林火发生率的长期预报统计模型，经１９９２年和１９９３年的实况验证，预报效果良好。
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| 关 键 词： | 森林 火灾 长期预报 相关分析 发生率 |
An Experiment on Long-term Forecasting of Forest Fire Occurrence in Shennongjia Area |
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| Yang Xianwei, Zhang Qiang.An Experiment on Long-term Forecasting of Forest Fire Occurrence in Shennongjia Area[J].Meteorological Monthly,1995,21(12):42-44. |
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| Authors: | Yang Xianwei Zhang Qiang |
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| Abstract: | The correlation analysis between the forest fire data in Shennongjia area and the monthly mean temperature over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1970 to 1991 has beed conducted. The long-term forecasting model of forest fire occurrence in this area from March to May is established. Varification of the actual situation in 1992 and 1993 suggests that the effect of this model is proved to be successful. |
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| Keywords: | forest fire Long-term forecasting correlation analysis |
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