A GIS-Based Tool for Representing Larval Dispersal for Marine Reserve Selection

Increasing efforts to implement marine protected areas (MPAs) as a means of managing marine ecosystems have created a need for evaluating potential spatial management plans. Almost all marine populations are metapopulations, connected reproductively by the dispersal of pelagic larvae. Models of marine population dynamics must account for larval connectivity, but despite recent advances connectivity patterns are still poorly understood. To allow more informed decision making when complete information on dispersal is lacking, we have developed a method based on geographic information systems (GIS) for representing larval dispersal distributions based on bathymetry and typical flows in the coastal ocean. These distributions reflect (1) generally greater flow in directions along, rather than across, lines of constant bathymetry and (2) lesser flow in shallow near-shore waters. We demonstrate how to parameterize this two-dimensional method for depicting larval dispersal based on comparisons to local oceanographic data. We then compare the predictions of the two-dimensional method to those of a simpler one-dimensional alternative in a population model used to evaluate proposed MPAs along the coast of central California. The method produces reasonable larval dispersal patterns and appears to include the effects of bathymetry on population dynamics better than commonly used one-dimensional methods and without requiring the significantly greater investment of developing particle-tracking circulation models. An important advantage of a two-dimensional approach is more realistic portrayal of the dependence of population persistence on the cross-shelf dimension of available habitat.