Modeling the Spatial Diffusion of Mobile Telecommunications in China

This article empirically evaluates factors contributing to spatial variations of cellular telephony adoption at the regional level in China. We estimate a logistic model using a variety of specifications for the spatial diffusion of cellular telephony. We find that regional disparity in the adoption and subsequent diffusion speed of cellular telephony is associated with different levels in economic development, economic structure, foreign investment, and the level of fixed-line telephony penetration. The results suggest that mobile communications diffusion starts first in regions with a higher potential demand density and economic development level. However, these characteristics play differential roles in determining the timing of initial adoption and diffusion speed within regions.