Generalized Rydelek-Sacks test for distinguishing between periodic and random patterns in seismicity

For distinguishing the periodicity of strong earthquakes on the time scale of decades, we generalized the Rydelek-Sacks test (R) delek. Sacks. 1989) to explore whether a time series is modulated by a periodic process or not. Thetest is conducted by comparing the total phasor of seismicity with that produced by a random Brownian motion.The phdse angle is defined by the origin time of earthquakes relative to a reference time scale. Using this methodwe tested two hypotheses in geodynamics and earthquake prediction study. One is the hypothesis of Romanowicz( 1993 ) who proposed that the great earthquakes alternate in a predictable fashion between strike-slip and thrustingmechanisms oil a 20~30 years cycle. The other hypothesis is that the strong earthquakes in and around China havean active period of about ten years. The test obtains a negative conclusion for the former hypothesis and a positiveconclusion for the latter at the 93% confidence level.