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Modeling urban expansion scenarios by coupling cellular automata model and system dynamic model in Beijing, China |
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| Authors: | Chunyang He Norio Okada Qiaofeng Zhang Peijun Shi Jingshui Zhang |
| Institution: | aCollege of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;bKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;cResearch Center for Disaster Reduction Systems, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan;dDepartment of Geosciences, Murray State University, Murray, KY 42071, USA |
| Abstract: | Spatially explicit urban expansion models that can trace urban development in the past and predict the expansion scenarios in the future are indispensable for examining urban planning policies. This paper demonstrates a new urban expansion scenario (UES) model by coupling one “bottom-up” cellular automata (CA)-based model and one “top-down” system dynamics (SD)-based model. By implementing the UES model in Beijing, the urban evolution from 1991 to 2004 was simulated and the UESs from 2004 to 2020 were predicted. The results suggest that a dilemma of urban expansion versus limited water resource and environment deterioration exists. Dealing with such a dilemma remains a challenge for the local government. |
| Keywords: | Urban expansion Cellular automata System dynamic Beijing |
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