综合优势相似法在短期气候预测中的应用

综合优势相似法是建立在相似因子群的多项相似与动态相似基础之上的，因此更能反映大气天气过程的实际演变，其预测趋势可最接近天气气候实况。综合优势相似法中相似和不相似这两个预报时段的气象序列的对比分析和严格检验是不可缺少的一部分，只有相似和不相似两者呈显著差别，才能认定相似有效，以相当高的可信度保证了预报的客观性和可靠性。综合优势相似法操作简便，在2002年濮阳和2004年郑州汛期降水趋势预报中效果良好，可作为目前短期气候预测业务中的基本工具。

The Application of Synthesized Predominance Analogue Method in Short-range Climate Forecast

Synthesized predominance analogue method is based on the multinomial similarity of the similarity factor group and dynamic similarity, so it can reflect the weather process more actually and the forecast is quite close to the real process. It is indispensable that we should analyze and test the meteorological sequences of the similarity and dissimilarity forecast terms in this method, and as long as presenting notable difference, it can be cognized available. This method can be operated easily, and it achieves good effects in precipitation forecast during flood season over Puyang and Zhengzhou in 2002 and 2004 respectively.