京津冀地区井水位的数字化观测及其地震前兆监测效能评估

在较为系统地调查北京、 天津、 河北地区井水位数字化观测现状的基础上, 分析了各井水位的年、 月、 日动态特征, 并根据以往的震例评估了地震前兆监测的效能。 研究结果表明, 约90%井的水位年动态有一定规律性, 可在地震中期前兆监测中发挥效能, 约50%井的水位日、 月动态有一定规律性, 无阶变与超3倍均方差的脉冲, 可在地震短期和短临前兆监测中发挥一定效能。 研究结果还表明, 数字化井水位观测中目前较为突出的问题是, 约一半的井水位动态中存在较大幅度的脉冲状"异常"变化, 严重影响地震前兆监测效能。

Digitalized well-water-level observation and monitoring efficiency evaluation of earthquake precursor in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Based on systematical investigation of present digital observation situation of well-water level, we have analyzed the yearly, monthly and daily dynamic behavior characteristics at different levels, and evaluated the monitoring efficiency of earthquake precursor on the basis of the earthquake cases. The result shows: (1) 90% of the wells, its' daily and monthly behaviors have some regularity, can exert its' efficiency in the medium-term precursory monitoring, (2) 50% of wells, its' daily and monthly behaviors have some regularity and have no step-change and impulse over trinal mean squared error, can exert its' efficiency during the short-term and short-impending-term precursory monitoring. The result also shows that there is impulse-type anomalies, affected exertion of earthquake monitoring efficiency severely, which accounts for about half of water level wells.