Zones of required investigation for earthquake-related hazards in Jerusalem

Jerusalem was hit by earthquakes several times in its history, in the course of which none of the holy sites of the three main faiths of the western world escaped damage. Intensities of the last M_L 6.2, July 11, 1927 Dead Sea earthquake, reached MSK VIII in the Old City of Jerusalem and the surrounding villages. As future strong earthquakes are inevitable, the need for the evaluation of earthquake-related hazards is obvious. Only general geotechnical properties of the section exposed in the mountainous area of Jerusalem are available; therefore, the hazard assessment was conducted from a geological perspective. The hazards identified in this study are: (1) amplification of seismic acceleration due to soft rock and soil conditions; (2) amplification due to mountainous topography; (3) dynamic instability of natural slopes; and (4) potential failure of slopes that have undergone engineering development and were weakened due to damaging, steepening, overloading, and wetting beyond their natural state. We formulated relative grades of vulnerability for each of the hazards and delineated the zones that require further specific investigation. For practical use we constructed a summary map that combines the different hazard categories. Looking at the summary map, the ground at the central N–S axis zone across Jerusalem is the least vulnerable. The bedrock there is mostly hard carbonate, the topography is mild, and thus only the alluvial cover, if thicker than 3 m, should be considered sensitive. Yet although the natural hazard in this area is limited, the risk should not be underrated. Much of the city lies there, including buildings constructed before antiseismic codes were regulated, and traditional engineering practice should not be taken for granted as antiseismic proof either. Eastwards, the shear wave velocity (Vs) contrast between the hard and soft rocks as well as the notable topography in places, impose the potential for amplification. Slopes, either naturally or artificially cutting into the soft chalk, may expose the area to dynamic instability; thus, the ongoing extensive development of the city in this direction should certainly take into account all of this. West of the central axis, the potential of failure of both steep natural and urbanized slopes appears. Being a plausible direction for future urban expansion, these areas specifically call for careful environmental and engineering planning. For engineering purposes, however, a specific site investigation is still necessary. Nevertheless, the summary map established in this study sets up for Jerusalem, for the first time, a practical tool for environmental and municipal planning, emergency response planning, and civil protection.