蕴震系统的稳定性及其Lyapunov指数

简述了耗散系统的自组织演化过程中（特别是临界行为中）Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数的变化规律，介绍了Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数的定义、理论背景与计算和估计方法，用数值方法计算了Ｒｏｓｓ１ｅｒ吸引子与Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ吸引子的正指数，并以大灰厂水准资料和京津唐地区多台资料为例，计算了蕴震系统在大震前后其正Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数值的变化，以此来分析和研究系统的临界行为及其自组织的演化过程，以期为地震预报提供一种实用化的参数。

THE STABILITY OF THE SEISMOGENIC SYSTEM AND ITS LYAPUNOV EXPONENTS

The movement stability and the structural stability of the complex system has been a interest question. In this paper, the evolution law of the Lyapunov exponents in the process of self-organization evolution of a dissipative system (espscially in the critical behavior) is described and the definition, the theory background and the calculative and estimative methods of Lyapunov exponents are presented.Taking the Rossler attractor and the Lorenz attractor as theoretical models, the positive Lyapunov exponents are calculated with the numerical algorithm. Meanwhile, taking the level data of Dahueichang and the precursory field of Beijing-Tianjing-Tangshan area as examples,the change of the Lyapunov exponent of the complex system before and after Tangshan earthquake are calculated too.The way a kind of practicable parameter for earthquake prediction may be provided.