区域滑坡泥石流灾害预警理论与方法研究

根据数年来的调查观测研究和工作实践,提出了滑坡泥石流灾害的预警分类体系,包括按物理参量划分的空间、时间与强度预警和按诱发因素参量划分的气象、地震与人类活动预警以及多参数、多因素共同作用下的综合预警。初步创建了区域性滑坡泥石流灾害暴发的两种预警理论方法,一种是基于临界过程降雨量判据图的预警方法;另一种是基于GIS的地质环境空间分析预警理论方法,通过计算预警区的滑坡泥石流灾害"发育度"、"潜势度"、"危险度"和"危害度"来实现。阐述了滑坡泥石流灾害预警的技术和行政工作程序,指出建立临界过程降雨量判据与地质环境空间分析相耦合的滑坡泥石流灾害预警理论方法是研究的新方向。

Study on the early warning methods of landslide-debris flows

Based on the field survey and monitoring research for a number of years, the classification system of landslide-debris flows early warnings is put forward which consists space, time and strength scopes on the basis of physical fundamentals, climate, earthquake and man-made activities and its comprehensive action according to the induced factors. Two theoretical methods on early warning are set up, one is critical rainfall criterion drawing curve method according to statistic analysis about the rainfall process in fifteen days before the landslide-debris flows happening in a region, another is spatial analysis of geological environments by to calculate landslide-debris flows' "distribution parameter", "potentiality parameter", "dangerous parameter" and "risk or harmfulness parameter" based on the GIS. Working procedures in technique and administration are introduced about landslide-debris flows early warnings in China. Finally, it is pointed out that the coming job is to set up a coupling model to combine critical rainfall criterion drawing curve with spatial analysis of geological environments for landslide-debris flows early warnings.