SPRING ICE-JAM FLOODING OF THE PEACE-ATHABASCA DELTA: EVIDENCE OF A CLIMATIC OSCILLATION

A historic record of spring ice-jam floods of the Peace-Athabasca Delta was analyzed for the years 1826–1995. The temporal pattern of flooding is non-random. The likelihood of a flood following a flood, or a non-flood following a non-flood, is greater than expected by chance. Probability analysis of flood occurrence reveals that the period 1860–1880 was a time of unusually few floods, and the period 1915–1950 was a time of unusually frequent floods. The long-term flood frequency is 1 flood in 6.25 years. Changes in flood frequency over the record reveal a pattern of oscillation described by a sine-based model that is correlated with the long-term (Gleissberg) cycle of solar activity. Monte Carlo simulation was used to test a Bennett Dam Model and a Cyclic Model. The Bennett Dam Model is unlikely to have generated the observed flood history (p=0.04). The observed flood history shows a better fit to the Cyclic Model (p=0.65). No correlations between floods and ENSO cold or warm events was detected. The most recent wet period began about 1900 and ended in the early 1960's prior to completion of the W. A. C. Bennett Dam in British Columbia. As independent corroboration of climatically-driven changes in flood frequency we present three additional lines of evidence. The pattern of annual muskrat returns (95 year record) reveals both 10 year cycles and long-term patterns that agree well with the observed flood cycle. The annual area burned in Wood Buffalo National Park is inversely related to flood occurrence. Incised channels and dendritic drainage patterns in the bed of Lake Mamawi provide probable evidence of a previous dry period in the delta. Climatic change or oscillation likely underlies the drying trend observed in recent decades in the Peace-Athabasca Delta.