| Abstract: | East Africa is particularly vulnerable to precipitation variability, as the livelihood of much of the population depends on rainfed agriculture. Seasonal forecasts of the precipitation anomalies, when skillful, can therefore improve implementation of coping mechanisms with respect to food security and water management. This study assesses the performance of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0 (NUIST-CFS1.0) on forecasting June–September (JJAS) seasonal precipitation anomalies over East Africa. The skill in predicting the JJAS mean precipitation initiated from 1 May for the period of 1982–2019 is evaluated using both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics on grid cell and over six distinct clusters. The results show that NUIST-CFS1.0 captures the spatial pattern of observed seasonal precipitation climatology, albeit with dry and wet biases in a few parts of the region. The model has positive skill across a majority of Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, whereas it doesn’t exceed the skill of climatological forecasts in parts of Sudan and southeastern Ethiopia. Positive forecast skill is found over regions where the model shows better performance in reproducing teleconnections related to oceanic SST. The prediction performance of NUIST-CFS1.0 is found to be on a level that is potentially useful over a majority of East Africa. |
