A new approach to identifying the weather-crop yield functionals for assessing climate change consequences |
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| Authors: | O D Sirotenko V N Pavlova |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Plant Sciences, Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands;(2) Crop Science Group, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, Germany;(3) Department of Social Sciences, Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 8130, 6700 EW Wageningen, The Netherlands;(4) Department of Environmental Sciences, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | A new approach to identifying the weather-crop yield functionals is suggested. It is shown that elimination of crop yield
trends using the difference regression (the first and second orders) makes it possible to substantially increase the accuracy
and reliability of estimates of climate change (variation) influence on the agriculture productivity. The methodology suggested
for assessing a climate change influence is realized for the grain crops in two regions of the Russian Federation with contrast
climate conditions. At the same time, it is found that short-term (up to 2–3 years) crop yield trends taken into account and
related to changes in the soil effective fertility promote a noticeable increase in the quality of long-term crop yield forecasts. |
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