A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE VARIATION FEATURES OF GRAIN YIELD OF CHINA IN RECENT 40 YEARS

ThespatialdistriblltionofcropcultivatedinChina,especiallyofcroptyPes,vanetiesandcroppingsystems,lspnnclpallydeterm1nedbyclimaticcondltions,andarelatlvestableconcentratedroponaldistributionpattemhasbeenformedinrecat4Oyears.Temporally,cropWeldshowsanincrementaltrendandanoscillationpattenlonlargeandmesialtimescalesbecauseoftheianuenceofagnculturaltechnologyandsoclalfaCtors,respeCtively.ThesharPvariationofaghculturalproduCtsinquantityandqualityfromyeartoyearispnnc1pallycausedbyclimate.This,onth…

A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE VARIATION FEATURES OF GRAIN YIELD OF CHINA IN RECENT 40 YEARS

Based on grain yield data of China, the vanation features of grain yield in China in recent 40 years and their relationships with the associated factors were analyzed. Results show that the total grain yield increased gradually, and its interannual variation is influenced principally by unit area crop yield (about 70 percent in average). The influences of agricultural technology, social factors and weather conditions on thet area crop yield can be separated because of their unique variation trends and time scales. The influence of agricultural technology is in a smoothly and gradually incremental trend, and the influence of the social factors is oscillated with three waves in recent 40 years, and the influence of weather conditions is fiuctuated sharply from year to year. Their mean effects on the inter-annual variation of unit area crop yield are about 35 to 40 percent, 10 to 15 percent and 50 percent respectively. In the view point of predictions, the effects of weather conditions are much more important.