The dynamics of a double-cell hydrothermal system in triggering seismicity at Somma-Vesuvius: results from a high-resolution radon survey (revisited)

Data collected at Somma-Vesuvius during the 1998–1999 radon surveys have been revisited and reinterpreted in light of recent geophysical and geochemical information. The duration of selected radon anomalies, together with the decay properties of radon, have been used to estimate the permeability and porosity of rocks of the deep hydrothermal system. The current local cyclic seismicity is explained by means of a double convective-cell model. Convective cells are separated by a low-permeability horizon located at about 2–2.5 km below sea level. Fluids convecting within the upper cells show temperatures ranging 300–350°C. Rock permeabilities in this sector are estimated on the order of 10⁻¹² m², for porosities (ϕ) of about 10⁻⁵ typical of a brittle environment where fluid velocities may reach ∼800 m/day. Fluid temperatures within the lower cells may be as high as 400–450°C, consistent with supercritical regimes. The hydrodynamic parameters for these cells are lower, with permeability k ∼ 10⁻¹⁵ m², and porosity ranging from 10⁻⁶ to 10⁻⁷. Here, fluid motion toward the surface is controlled by the fracture network within a porous medium approaching brittle–ductile behaviour, and fluid velocities may reach ∼1,800 m/day. The low-permeability horizon is a layer where upper and lower convecting cells converge. In this region, fluids (convecting both at upper and lower levels) percolate through the wallrock and release their brines. Due to self-sealing processes, permeability within this horizon reaches critical values to keep the fluid pressure near lithostatic pressure (for k ∼ 10⁻¹⁸ m²). Deep fluid pressure buildups precede the onset of hydrothermally induced earthquakes. Permeability distribution and rock strength do not exclude that the next eruption at Somma-Vesuvius could be preceded by a seismic crisis, eventually leading to a precursory phreatic explosion. The coupling of these mechanisms has the potential of inducing pervasive failure within rocks of the hydrothermal shell, and may be a prelude to a magmatic eruption. It is finally emphasised that the integrated analysis of seismic and geochemical data, including radon emissions, could be successfully used in testing temperature distributions and variations of porosity and permeability in active geothermal reservoirs.