印尼苏门答腊MW9.0级地震对全球及中国大陆地震趋势影响研究的反思

本文对2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊以西发生MW9.0级地震后所做的地震趋势预测做了反思,指出:关于全球特大地震近年可能连发,特大地震对几年内世界7级以上地震年频度没有明显影响,但未来几年内7级以上强震可能集中在这次特大地震附近或相关构造上的预测意见是正确的;而有关近年中国大陆及川滇地区可能发生7级强震的预测是错误的;并认为,2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震释放了已积累的应变可能是这次特大地震不能触发中国大陆及川滇地区发生强震的重要原因。

Introspection on the earthquake potential effect in the world and the main land of China caused by the 26 December 2004 Mw9.0 Sumatra Earthquake

In this paper we recall the earthquake potential prediction after the 26 December 2005 Mw9.0 Sumatra Earthquake.Then we think that the great earthquakes in the world may occur one after another and but the frequency each year of the earthquakes greater than M7.0 may not be affected obviously by the great earthquake of Sumatra in a few years.Our prediction that there will be earthquakes equal to or greater than M7.0 around the area of Sumatra and relate structures is correct.But our prediction that there were M7.0 earthquakes occurring in main land of China and in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces is wrong.We also think that the releasing of accumulated strain energy after the 2001 Western Kunlunshan Pass M8.1 Earthquake may be the key reason that the great earthquake can not induce the occurring of strong earthquakes in main land of China and Sichuan Yunnan provinces.