Policy and global change research

The history of the U.S. Global Change Research Program calls into question its sustainability. The Program was established on the presumption that a prerequisite for rational, comprehensive, and cost-effective policy responses is the reduction of scientific uncertainty through comprehensive predictive models. This presumption remains a significant barrier to the renewal of public support for the Program through near-term progress consistent with its mandate to produce information readily usable by policymakers. This article critiques the use of comprehensive predictive models for policy purposes; proposes one modest alternative to comprehensive predictive models as a means of integrating scientific and non-scientific considerations into recommendations readily usable by policymakers; and places the issue in the broader context of a paradigm shift in U.S. science and technology policy. The purpose is to expedite progress, consistent with the policy mandate, that would help sustain public support for the Program.This is a revision of a paper presented at the Fourteenth Annual Research Conference of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, Washington, DC, October 30, 1993, and included as testimony submitted for the record of Hearings on the Climate Change Action Plan and Assessment, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives (November 16, 1993), 111–140.