Long-term trends and interannual variability of temperature in Drake Passage

Temperature data collected over the last 36 years (1969–2004) in Drake Passage are used to examine interannual temperature variation and long-term trends in the upper ocean. To reduce the effect of variation from different sampling locations and temporal variability introduced by meridional shifts in the Polar Front (PF), the data were divided into two sub-regions north (3800 temperature profiles) and south (3400) of the PF. Temperature anomalies were formed by removing a temporal mean field for each profile in each sub-region at 100 m depth intervals from the surface to 700 m. North of the PF, statistically significant warming trends of 0.02 °C yr⁻¹ were observed that were largely depth-independent between 100 and 700 m. A statistically significant cooling trend of −0.07 °C yr⁻¹ was observed at the surface south of the PF, which was smaller (−0.04 °C yr⁻¹) but still statistically significant when possible seasonal sampling biases were accounted for. The observed cooling at the surface and warming at depth is largely consistent with a poleward shift of the PF due to enhancement of westerly winds in the Southern Ocean, as recently suggested by models and observations. The observed annual temperature anomalies in the upper 400 m north of the PF and in the upper 100 m south of the PF are highly correlated to variability in sea ice, and also to climate indices of the Antarctic Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Variability in sea ice and temperature anomalies lag El Niño variability in the Pacific, with a phasing consistent with the observed cyclical patterns of sea ice and sea surface temperature associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave or Antarctic Dipole Mode in the Southern Ocean. In contrast, the sea ice variability and temperature anomalies at all depths north of the PF and at 0–100 m depth south of the PF were primarily coincident with, or led the Antarctic Oscillation Index. No significant correlations were found with the large-scale climate variability indices in southern Drake Passage below 100 m depth, which is occupied by upper Circumpolar Deep Water (uCDW). This water mass is not formed locally, is largely isolated from the surface, and exhibits vertical and lateral homogeneity. Hence changes may be difficult to detect in the available measurements, and climate variation in the source water regions of uCDW may take a long time to reach Drake Passage.