全球气候变化影响下中国农业产量的可持续性

气候变化的区域影响愈益成为具有挑战性的问题，尤其是气候变化对农业产量可持续性的影响已引起广泛的关注。基于全示气候变化对中国的影响和区域气候变率分析，提出了粮食气候产量形成模型，半将其应用于黄淮海地区冬小麦小分条件和产量研究，同时对全球气候变化情形下冬小麦产量的变化做出评价。

The Sustainability of Chinese Agricultural Yield Affected by Global Climate Change

As one of the key issues of regional respond to global climatic change, the sustainability of agricultural production under the changing climate is attracting more and more academic focuses. The impact of climate change on the agriculture results from the change of climate elements mean values and of the climate variability. The assessment system of winter wheat water and yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the main production area of food in China, is submitted in this paper to discuss the impact of climate variability and future climate on the production of wheat. The system is made up with a set of models, which is based on the following idea. Crop uses water in the form of the transference of precipitation, soil moisture and plant water. The situation of crop water supply and requirement can be expressed by the relationship between actual evaportranspiration and potential evaportranspiration. Then we can estimate crop yield from the loss of evaportranspiration. The simulation of water balance during the growth period of winter wheat shows that the deficience of water are 200400 mm in the area of north of the Yellow River, 100 mm or so in the middle part of the Plain, and nearly zero in the area including south of Henan province, north of Anhui and Jiangsu province. The spatial divergence of irrigation amount is discussed, too. From the water balance estimation model, the yield of winter wheat can be calculated under the scenario of climate change in the future. So the change of yield of winter wheat in the Plain in the future is given, which is yield decrease in the most part of the plain.