安徽地区跨断层流动水准测量与区域地震关系研究

收集安徽地区沿郯庐断裂带及“霍山窗”布设的6个场地流动水准测量近30 a的观测资料，应用“形变速率累加分析”法进行处理，研究异常时段与周边地震的关系，分析相同时段所有场地形变速率累加整体特征。结果表明：1）形变速率累加分析能够有效提取每条测线超过2倍标准差的数据，同时速率较小的趋势性变化可得到压制。2）形变速率累加分析在提取形变速率时，原始数据的转折变化也能得到一定程度保留，曲线转折时期形变速率累加出现的频次明显增多。3）连续的形变速率累加时段映震效果较好，但并不能一一对应，需结合测线进行具体分析。4）研究区各测线形变速率累加在不同时段出现的频次不同，说明断裂活动均具有一定的分时特征，分时活动整体上具有群体性特点。5）当该区域跨断层水准资料的形变速率累加出现较为密集的群体性变化时，华东地区发生MS5.0左右地震的可能性会增大。

Study on the Relationship between Cross-Fault Mobile Leveling and Regional Earthquakes in Anhui Province

We collect the mobile leveling data of 6 sites along the Tan-Lu fault zone and “Huoshan seismic window” in Anhui area in recent 30 years, and process the data using the “deformation rate accumulative analysis” method. We study the relationship between anomaly period and surrounding earthquakes, and analyze the overall characteristics of deformation rate accumulation of all sites in the same period. The results show that: 1) The deformation rate accumulative analysis can effectively extract the data of more than 2 times the standard deviation of each survey line, and the trend changes with smaller rates can be suppressed. 2) The deformation rate accumulative analysis not only extracts the deformation rate, but also retains the transition change of original data to a certain extent, and the frequency of deformation rate accumulation in the curve transition period increases obviously. 3) The effect of reflecting earthquakes in the period of continuous deformation rate accumulation is better, but lacks one-to-one correspondence, so it needs to be analyzed in combination with the survey line. 4) The frequency of deformation rate accumulation of each survey line in the study area differs in each period, indicating that the fault activity has certain time-sharing characteristics, and the time-sharing activity has group characteristics on a whole. 5) When the deformation rate accumulation of cross-fault leveling data in this area changes intensively, the possibility of MS5.0 earthquake in east China will increase.