Impacts of future land cover and climate change on the water balance in northern Iran |
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| Authors: | Sharif Joorabian Shooshtari Mehdi Gholamalifard Mahmood Azari Roberto Serrano-Notivoli Juan Ignacio López-Moreno |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Malayer University, Malayer, Hamedan, Iran;2. Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Mazandaran, Iran;3. Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran;4. Department of Soil and Water, Estación Experimental de Aula Dei, CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain;5. Department of Geoenvironmental Processes and Global Change, Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain |
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| Abstract: | We evaluated the potential impacts of future land cover change and climate variability on hydrological processes in the Neka River basin, northern Iran. This catchment is the main source of water for the intensively cultivated area of Neka County. Hydrological simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. An ensemble of 17 CMIP5 climate models was applied to assess changes in temperature and precipitation under the moderate and high emissions scenarios. To generate the business-as-usual scenario map for year 2050 we used the Land Change Modeler. With a combined change in land cover and climate, discharge is expected to decline in all seasons except the end of autumn and winter, based on the inter-model average and various climate models, which illustrated a high degree of uncertainty in discharge projections. Land cover change had a minor influence on discharge relative to that resulting from climate change. |
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| Keywords: | R Woods |
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