新疆小城镇人口规模预测

小城镇人口的发展对新疆城镇化发展具有重要意义,其人口变动的各种信息将对新疆城镇的发展起到重要的参考作用。在对人口预测的主要方法进行比较的基础上,采用一元线性回归法、指数法、增长速度法和灰色系统GM(1,1)模型等对新疆小城镇2010、2015和2020年的总人口进行了预测。由于近年来新疆经济的加速发展,城镇化速度也将加快,小城镇人口将会出现较快的提高。故而,在综合考虑新疆小城镇人口发展的多种因素及未来新疆城镇发展趋势的基础上,针对各种预测方法的优缺点综合得出了新疆小城镇2010、2015和2020年的总人口数量。

Population forecast of small towns in Xinjiang

The development of population of small towns is very important for the urbanization of Xinjiang, and the information of population will play very important role in the development of small towns. Based on the comparison of most population forecast methods, several methods were used to forecast the population of small towns in Xinjiang in 2010, 2015 and 2020, such as simple linear regression, the index, increasing rate, Grey System GM (1,1) model and so on. Considering of factors influencing population development of small towns and the tendency of Xinjiang urbanization, the paper attained a conclusion on the total population of small towns in Xinjiang in 2010, 2015 and 2020. The paper also pointed out that urbanization will be accelerated and the population of small towns in Xinjiang will be increased rapidly because of the rapid development of Xinjiang in the near future. Furthermore, Xinjiang is an area with many ethnic minority groups, and local people possess particular family planning policy. As a result, the natural population developement has a high pace and the surplus labor force transferring to industry is still confined on a relative small scale. In addition, population scale of municipal towns of Xinjiang has been always higher than the average scale in the whole China,so the average population scale of small towns will continually be on the top list of the nation in the future. Moreover, the population distribution of Xinjiang is different from the other areas in China because of the limitation of natural conditions. In the future, about 50 percent of town population will live in the small towns and this ratio will be continuously enlarged.