气候变化对中国农业生产的影响初探

本文初步估计了我国的农业气候资源潜力。假设±1℃的温度变化和±100毫米的降水变化为单位气候变化。我国农业气候资源潜力在±1℃的温度变化时具有600亿斤的可能变化,在±100毫米的降水量变化时具有1600亿斤的可能变化。此外,还根据对历史时期、地质时代气候变化的最大幅度的分析,推论对生态系统可能的影响。最后得出“气候生态序列”。

POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC VARIATION ON AGRICULTURE IN CHINA

In this article the potentiality of agricultural climatic resources is approximately estimated. 1℃ temperature change and 100 mm rainfall change are taken as units of climatic variation. In the case of 1℃ temperature change, the potentiality of agricultural climatic resources might have a change about 30 million tons of grain in magnitude; in the case of 100 mm rainfall change, the change of potentiality would be 80 million tons. Besides, analysing the greatest amplitudes of climatic change in historical and geological times, the author succeeds in giving some preliminary deductions of possible impacts of climatic variation in different time scales, which may be summarized as a climatoecological series.