陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区农户气候变化的适应行为及影响因素分析

从农户个体微观视角，研究农业的活动主体--农户的气候变化适应行为。选择陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区，采用问卷调查和半结构式访谈相结合的方法研究农户气候变化感知与适应行为，运用二元逻辑回归模型分析影响该地区农户适应行为的因素。结果表明：农户对气候变化趋势感知比较一致，认为近5 年夏季和冬季气温升高，降水减少，但与实际观测存在一定偏差。农户应对气候变化采取适应行为的比重并不高，只有57.8% 的农户表示采取了相应的措施来应对气候变化。农户适应行为受气候变化感知的影响，此外，家庭社会经济属性对农户采取适应行为的概率影响显著，而性别、年龄、文化程度等人口属性因素与农户采取适应行为的概率关系不大。

Farmer’s Adaptive Behaviors and Its Influence Factors to Climate Change: A Case Study in Hilly and Gully Area of Northern Shaanxi

From the micro perspectives of individual farmers, we aim to study perception and adaptation of farmers who act as the subject of agricultural activities to climate change. The hilly and gully areas of northern Shaanxi are selected as the study area, using empirical analysis of questionnaires survey combined with semistructured interview method, in order to examine farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change and investigate factors that influence farmers’ adaptive activities through binary logistic regression model. The results show that farmers’ perception of climate change tendency is relatively consistent, that summer temperature and winter temperature have increased in recent 5 years, and precipitation has decreased. But there are some deviations from the observation data. The proportion of farmers who have taken adaptive measures is not very high, only 57.8% of respondents have adjusted their farming practices to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Farmers’ adaptive behaviors are affected by their perception of climate change. Social-economical characteristics of household have significant impact on farmers’ adaptive activities. However, there is little relationship between farmers’ adaptive behaviors with household demographic characteristics, such as gender, age and education level.