甲烷浓度变化的有效辐射强迫及其对气候的影响

利用国家气候中心大气环流模式BCC_AGCM2.0，结合IPCC 第五次评估报告给出的最新有效辐射强迫的概念，模拟了自工业革命以来由于人类活动造成的甲烷浓度增加引起的有效辐射强迫及其气候效应。得出如下结论：甲烷浓度增加造成的有效辐射强迫的全球平均值为0.49 W/m²；导致全球平均地表温度上升0.31 ℃，升温主要分布在南北半球中高纬度地区；全球平均降水量增加0.02 mm/d，赤道辐合带降水中心有向北移动的趋势；地表水汽通量的变化使高纬度地区云量增加（约4%），而中低纬度地区云量减小（约-3%）。

A Modeling Study of Effective Radiative Forcing and Climate Response Due to the Change in Methane Concentration

A General Circulation Model, BCC_AGCM2.0 from National Climate Center of China, was used in this work. And the effective radiative forcing (ERF), newly defined by IPCC AR5, was adopted in discussing the radiative forcing and climate response for methane. The ERF due to the change in methane concentration from pre-industrial was 0.49 W/m². Because of the change in methane concentration, the global annual mean surface temperature increased by 0.31℃ , and precipitation increased by 0.02 mm per day. And there were remarkable increases (by approximately 4%) in the cloud cover in high latitudes of both Northern and Southern Hemisphere, and the cloud cover decreased (by approximately -3%) sharply in tropical areas.