1.5～4℃升温阈值下亚洲地区气候变化预估

基于18个CMIP5模式在RCP情景下的模拟结果，综合分析了全球升温1.5～4℃阈值下亚洲地区平均温度和降水以及极端温度和降水的变化，并着重对比了1.5℃与2℃升温阈值下的异同。结果表明：相比工业化前，在全球升温1.5℃、2℃、3℃和4℃阈值下，亚洲区域平均温度将分别升高2.3℃、3.0℃、4.6℃和6.0℃，高纬度地区的响应大于中低纬地区；降水分别增加4.4%、5.8%、10.2%和13.0%，存在明显的区域差异。极热天气将增加，极冷天气将减少；极端降水量的变率将会加大。与2℃升温阈值相比：1.5℃阈值下亚洲平均温度的上升幅度将降低0.5～1.0℃以上，大部分地区的降水增幅减少5%～20%，但西亚和南亚西部的降水则偏多10%～15%；极端高温的增温幅度在亚洲地区均匀下降，而极端低温的增温幅度在亚洲中高纬地区降低显著；亚洲大部分地区极端降水的增加幅度减弱，但在西亚会增强。全球升温1.5℃和2℃时，亚洲发生非常热天气的概率相比基准期（1861-1900年）均将增加1倍以上，发生极热天气的概率普遍增加10%；发生极端强降水的概率增加10%。

Asian Climate Change in Response to Four Global Warming Targets

Based on the simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under there RCP scenarios, this article investigates the changes of the mean temperature and precipitation as well as their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5℃–4℃, and further compares their differences between the 1.5℃ and the 2℃ targets. The results show that relative to the preindustrial ear, the mean temperature over Asia will increase by 2.3℃, 3.0℃, 4.6℃ and 6.0℃ at the warming targets of 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃ and 4℃, respectively, with stronger warming in the high latitudes than in the low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in the mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%、5.8%、10.2% and 13%, but there are significant regional differences. Meanwhile, an increase in warm extreme, a decrease in cold extreme, and an augment in the variability of the extreme precipitation amount are projected. Compared with the case under the 2℃ target, the mean temperature will cool more than 0.5℃–1℃ over Asia at the 1.5 target, and the mean precipitation will reduce 5%–20% over most of the Asian areas while increase by about 10–15% over West Asia and western South Asia. The extreme high temperature will appear uniformly lower in the Asian region, and the extreme low temperature will decrease significantly in the high latitudes of Asia. Increase in the extreme precipitation will weaken over most of Asia but enhance over West Asia. Under the 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming targets, the probability of the occurrence of hot weather, extremely hot weather and extremely strong precipitation will increase respectively by at least one times, 10% and 10% as compared to the reference period (1861–1900).