未来气候情景下冬小麦潜在北移区农业气候资源变化特征

基于区域气候模式系统PRECIS输出的RCP4.5气候情景数据分析表明，相较于1981-2010年，至2071-2097年冬小麦种植北界将平均向北移动147.8 km，北移面积约1.86×105 km²。选取代表光、温、水资源的9项农业气候资源指标，探究未来情景下，2021-2097年冬小麦潜在北移区内农业气候资源变化特征，结果表明：(1)相较于基准时段(1961-1990年)，未来潜在北移区内光照资源变化呈减少趋势；热量资源呈明显增加趋势，在21世纪末的30年，波动性加大；降水资源整体增加趋势不明显，但波动性亦呈现增大趋势。(2)未来潜在北移区内，2030T (2021-2050年)、2050T (2041-2070年)和2070T (2061-2090年)时段光照资源在研究区域的东北部减少幅度较大，而在西南部较小；热量资源在研究区域的北部增加比南部明显；降水资源则主要在研究区域的东北部增加明显。

Variations of Agro-Climatic Resources Under a Future Climate Scenario in the Potential Northward Region of Winter Wheat

Based on future climate data under RCP4.5 scenario generated from the regional climate modeling system (PRECIS), climatic northern boundary of winter wheat would move northward 147.8 km in 2071-2097 and possible planting area would increase by 1.86 ×105 km² relative to 1981-2010. The variations of agro-climatic resources under RCP4.5 scenario in the potential northward region of winter wheat were analyzed based on the nine selected indexes of agro-climatic resources. Results indicated that: (1) compared with the climate baseline (1961-1990), the light resource in potential northward region would decrease; heat resource would significantly increase with an enhanced variability in the last 30 years of the 21st century; precipitation resource shows an overall slight increasing trend but with an greater fluctuation; (2) in the time slice 2030T (2021-2050), 2050T (2041-2070), and 2070T (2061-2090), light resource would decrease more in the northeast of study area, while less in the southwest; heat resource would increase more in northern area than southern part; precipitation resource would increase obviously in northeast of the potential northward region.