全球年平均人为热释放气候强迫的估算

利用能源经济领域具有权威性的英国石油公司(BP)世界能源统计资料和联合国人口统计资料,通过一些简单的数值计算,初步估算了人为热释放的全球气候强迫。结果表明:当前(2008年)全球年平均人为热释放的气候强迫还不是很大,约为0.031W/m2;但随着人口及能源消费总量的增加,未来人为热释放产生的全球年平均气候强迫将有可能达0.30W/m2。

Preliminary Estimate of the Global Average Annual Climate Forcing Resulted from Anthropogenic Heat Release

The release of heat into the environment for human activities, such as energy consumption and human metabolism, is called anthropogenic heat release. During the process of anthropogenic heat release, the ground and troposphere will be heated, which have several impacts on urban climate change, and furthermore which may aggravate the global climate change. The statistical data of world energy consumption from British Petroleum and the demographic information from the United Nations Population Division are used to explore the impacts of anthropogenic heat on the global climate change. The results indicate that the current global annual climatic forcing of anthropogenic heat release is not yet large, about 0.031W/m²; but with the population and the total energy consumption increasing, the future global annual climatic forcing of anthropogenic heat release may reach 0.30 W/m².