CAPPS1和CAPPS2数值预报模式对比分析

对CAPPS1模式和CAPPS2模式预报广西污染物进行了对比分析。主要对比了其污染扩散原理、气象预报模式、操作系统、运行时间、预报时效及预报效果。分析表明：CAPPS1和CAPPS2模式对各种污染物预报的相关系数均在0．44以上，两种模式预报广西空气污染都是可行的；两种模式均对SO2的预报效果最好，NO2次之，PM10相对最差；CAPPS2模式对各种污染物的预报值与实测值相关系数均比CAPPS1高，其中NO2的相关系数提高幅度最大；CAPPS2模式对NO2和PM10的预报准确率比CAPPS1偏高，而对SO2的预报准确率比CAPPS1偏低；CAPPS2预报首要污染物正确率比CAPPS1高出11个百分点，而预报首要污染物等级正确率则高出9个百分点。

Contrast Between CAPPS1 and CAPPS2 Numerical Prediction Models

A contrast analysis of CAPPS1 and CAPPS2 prediction models for Guang Xi air quality was conducted, including their pollutant diffusion theories, weather forecasting models, operating systems, run time, and valid time. It is concluded that both CAPPS1 and CAPPS2 models have a correlation coefficient of over 0 44 for all kinds of pollutants, and both models are applicable to air quality forecasts in Guang Xi and have the best prediction precision on SO 2, the second on NO 2 , while PM10 prediction is relatively worse. CAPPS2 has higher correlation coefficients for all pollutants than CAPPS1 with the highest on NO 2. In contrast to CAPPS1, CAPPS2 has higher prediction precision on NO 2 and PM10 and lower prediction precision on SO 2. The prediction precision of CAPPS2 on chief pollutant is 11 percent higher than those of CAPPS1, and 9 percent higher for grade prediction.