Applying multi‐parameter runoff elasticity to assess water availability in a changing climate: an example from Texas,USA

Adaptation and mitigation efforts related to global trends in climate and water scarcity must often be implemented at the local, single‐catchment scale. A key requirement is understanding the impact of local climate and watershed characteristics coupled with these regional trends. For surface water, determination of multi‐parameter runoff elasticities is a promising tool for achieving such understanding, as explored here for two surface‐water dependent basins in Texas. The first basin is the water supply for Dallas‐Ft. Worth (DFW), and exhibits relatively high precipitation elasticity (proportional change in runoff to change in precipitation) ε_P = 2.64, and temperature elasticity ε_T = ? 0.41. Standard precipitation–temperature elasticity diagrams exhibit unusual concave contours of runoff change, indicating influence of additional parameters, which can be isolated using multi‐parameter approaches. The most influential local parameter in DFW is unexpected reduced runoff fraction in cooler wetter years. Those years exhibit increased summer (JJA) precipitation fraction, but predominant cracking soils in DFW minimize JJA runoff, yielding negative . A comparative basin near Houston shows positive , reflecting the local impact of tropical cyclones and lesser abundance of cracking soils. Both basins exhibit positive elasticity to 1‐year previous precipitation (e.g. DFW ε_{P ? 1} = 1.24), reflecting the influence of soil moisture storage. Only DFW exhibits negative elasticity to 2‐year previous precipitation (ε_{P ? 2} = ? 0.65), reflecting multi‐year influence of vegetation growth and increased evapotranspiration. Using these elasticities, analysis of historical multi‐decadal climate departures for DFW indicates the 80% decrease in runoff during the 1950–1957 drought of record was primarily caused by reduced precipitation. Runoff 56% above‐normal during an unprecedented 1986–1998 wet period was primarily caused by increased precipitation. Since 2000, despite precipitation slightly above normal, runoff has decreased 20%, primarily in response to ～ 1^°C warming. Future precipitation droughts superimposed on this new drier normal are likely to be much more severe than historical experience would indicate. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.