Interannual and long-term variability of the summer monsoon and its possible link with northern hemispheric surface air temperature |
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Authors: | R K Verma K Subramaniam S S Dugam |
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Institution: | (1) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, 411005 Pune, India |
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Abstract: | Some statistical properties of the summer monsoon seasonal rainfall for India during the last 100 years (1881–1980) are presented.
The most recent decade of 1971–1980 shows the lowest value of standard-decadal average monsoon rainfall (86.40 cm) and is
also characterised by the second highest value of coefficient of variation in monsoon rainfall (12.4 %). The combined last
two standard-decadal period of 1961–1980 was the period of the largest coefficient of variation and the lowest average monsoon
rainfall for India.
The possible influence of global climatic variability on the performance of the monsoon is also examined. Analyses of correlation
coefficient show that a statistically significant positive relationship with a time-lag of about six months exists between
monsoon rainfall and northern hemispheric surface air temperature. A cooler northern hemisphere during January/February leads
to a poor monsoon.
All the major drought years during the last 3 decades had much cooler January/February periods over the northern hemisphere—1972
having the coldest January/February with a temperature departure of −0.94°C and the most disastrous monsoon failure. |
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Keywords: | Variability of the summer monsoon northern hemispheric surface air temperature decadal averages global climatic variability monsoon failure coefficients of variability long range prediction |
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