Evaluation of Probabilistic Earthquake Prediction and Decision-making of Releasing Predictions to the Public

Chinese seismologists have been coping with the challenging scientific problem of earthquake prediction,but now they are confronted with an even more challenging problem:figuring out a procedure of releasing a prediction to the public.In order to make the correct decision,in addition to the widely launched studies of seismic hazard and risk analysis,it is necessary to further study the social consequences of releasing an earthquake prediction to the public,and the possible economic cost of prevention countermeasures against earthquakes.It is also necessary to replace deterministic predictions by probabilistic predictions.Probabilistic prediction is a method well-suited for the prediction of chaotic seismic events.It can integrate the long-term risk estimate and short-term forecasting into a unified procedure,make quantitative analysis in decision-making on the release of predictions to the public,and achieve maximum beneficial social results of earthquake prediction.