一个长期降水预报的热力学模式

本文首先从大气水分平衡方程和地气系统热平衡方程出发,导出了描写降水和地温、气温相互联系的方程,然后根据土壤热传导方程,得到地温的预报方程,由此建立了一个长期降水预报模式。另外还对方程中与气候平均状态有关的参数的量级,根据实际资料进行了估算,对模式进行了合理的简化,为长期降水数值预报提出了一个实际可行的途径。

A THERMODYNAMIC MODEL FOR LONG-RANGE PRECIPITATION PREDICTION

First in this paper, we deduced the equations relating the precipitation with the air temperature and ground temperature from the vapour balance equation of the atmosphere and the heat balance equation of the earth-atmosphere system. And then based on the heat conduction equation of the soil we obtained the ground temperature prediction equation and hence designed a model for long-range precipitation prediction. According to the real data we also have estimated the orders of the equations parameters which are related to the climatological normals. Based upon this estimation we simplified the model reasonably and finally obtained a practical model for long-range numerical precipitation prediction.