产业多样化、创新与经济韧性 ——基于后危机时期珠三角的实证

2008年金融危机冲击对珠三角的外向型经济造成巨大冲击，城镇发展面临一系列工业经济放缓、产业人口流失和厂房住宅空置等问题。针对危机过后珠三角城市所表现出的经济韧性，文章重点研究了城市经济结构、产业创新与经济韧性的关系，通过对产业多样化、相关多样化、非相关多样化、创新与经济韧性进行测度，探讨了上述指标在时空上的分异特征，并运用回归分析方法分析了这种分异的影响因素。研究发现：1）产业结构多样化、创新对提升珠三角城市经济韧性有显著的促进作用，同时经济发展水平与经济韧性存在正向关系；2）珠三角经济韧性的时间变化和空间分布存在明显分异，受金融危机冲击影响经济韧性波动变化明显，而创新驱动战略的实施则有效提升区域创新水平；3）珠三角强大的国内市场有助于抵御经济危机冲击所带来的外部需求萎缩，在保持较高经济开放程度的同时具有较好的经济韧性；4）相关多样化与非相关多样化对珠三角经济韧性的影响是趋异的，非相关多样化能有效地分散并降低外部冲击的风险，而相关多样化则更容易导致危机向相关联部门的蔓延。

Industrial Diversity,Innovation, and Economic Resilience: Empirical Analysis of the Pearl River Delta in the Post-financial Crisis Era

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, some cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) effectively responded and adapted to the economic crisis and achieved regrowth, while others were caught in a development dilemma, facing sustained shrinkage problems such as a decline in the industrial economy, reduction in the labor force, and factories and houses lying vacant. In the context of this phenomenon, this paper focuses on the relationship between urban economic structure, industrial innovation, and economic resilience. Through the measurement of economic resilience, industrial diversification, related and non-related diversification, and innovation, we highlight the effects of industrial diversity, related variety, unrelated variety, and innovation on economic resilience for the period 2008–2017. For this purpose, we investigate spatial–temporal characteristics of their differences from the perspectives of nine prefecture-level cities in the PRD. Moreover, this paper uses regression analysis to examine the influencing factors (i.e., degree of economic openness, economic development level, and local financial situation) of economic resilience. We find that, first, industrial diversity and innovation both have a significant positive impact on economic resilience in the PRD. That is, higher the degree of industrial diversity and stronger the innovation ability, higher the level of economic resilience will be when facing the impact of a financial crisis. Second, there is a positive correlation between economic openness, development level, and resilience. However, we find that high domestic demand in Mainland China effectively offsets the impact of the financial crisis on the PRD’s export-oriented economy. After the shock of the financial crisis in 2008, the trajectories of economic resilience and industrial diversity generally tended to decline, while the level of industrial innovation rapidly increased. From a spatial perspective, the distribution of economic resilience in the PRD shows significant heterogeneity before and after the financial crisis. That is, it changed from a “center-periphery” pattern with Guangzhou as the core city in the PRD to a “double-pole” pattern featuring Shenzhen and Zhuhai as the two poles. In addition, the impact of related and unrelated variety on economic resilience is mixed: related variety has a negative influence on economic resilience, while unrelated variety is conducive to improving it. The results can be summarized as follows: regional and local governments should focus on strengthening unrelated diversification in different sectors during the process of industrial transformation and upgrading, to make regional economic systems resilient through diffusing the crisis among different sectors. At the same time, it is necessary to recognize that a region's industrial base will play an important role in shaping its future economic potential through influencing factors such as industry structure, human capital, innovation atmosphere, business culture, government services, and more.