我国南海沿海台风及暴潮灾害趋势分析

利用中国气象局上海台风研究所(CMA)和国家海洋局(SOA)数据资料, 对南海沿海台风活动(1949—2016)和风暴潮灾害趋势(1989—2016)进行了统计分析。结果表明, 南海地区台风年登陆频数整体上呈微弱减少趋势, 但强台风影响及强度呈加强趋势; 1990年代中期台风登陆频数出现显著突变, 粤东地区受高强度台风的影响变得频繁, 粤西地区从2007年开始台风登陆强度逐年增强; 研究区域内台风强度分布一致性较好。文章还总结了典型的热带气旋路径, 分析了不同入射角范围的台风在强度和地区分布上占比的变化规律, 指出近年来中国南海沿海地区年强台风暴潮灾害发生频数增多, 年最大风暴潮等级有增大趋势。

Trend analysis of typhoon and storm surge disaster on the South China Sea coast of China

Based on the analysis of data obtained from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) (1949-2016) and State Oceanic Administration (SOA) (1989-2016), the trend of tropical cyclone and storm surge disaster along the northern South China Sea was examined in this study. The result indicated that the annual frequency of typhoons had been decreasing slightly but the influence of powerful typhoons and typhoon intensity showed a rising tendency. The frequency of landfall typhoons had experienced significant transformation in the mid-90s. Eastern Guangdong was frequently affected by high-intensity typhoons, and typhoon intensity in western Guangdong had increased year by year since 2007. Typhoon intensity gave the accordant distribution in the four study areas. Four typical paths of storm surge were summarized, and variations of intensity and regional distributions of typhoons with different incidence angle ranges were also analyzed in the study. We found that both the frequency of strong storm surge disaster and the level of annual maximum storm surge had increasing trends along South China coast in recent years.