干、湿月游程的Markov链模拟 |
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引用本文: | 丁裕国,牛涛. 干、湿月游程的Markov链模拟[J]. 大气科学学报, 1990, 13(3): 286-297 |
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作者姓名: | 丁裕国 牛涛 |
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基金项目: | 国家自然科学基金“中国统计气候研究”项目 |
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摘 要: | 本文以文献[1]中提出的游程和转折点的概念。利用Markov链研究我国各大气候区若千代表测站干、湿月游程的统计特征,得到许多有实际应用意义的气候统计信息。此外,文中还对干、湿月转移概率矩阵的稳定性及其极限分布作了计算和讨论,其结果可直接提供长期预报的气候背景。
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收稿时间: | 1989-01-24 |
修稿时间: | 1989-05-09 |
A MARKOV CHAIN SIMULATION FOR DRY AND WET MONTH RUNS |
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Abstract: | Much climatological-statistical information of practical significance has been obtained through the study of the statistical features of dry/wet month runs at a number of representative stations by using Markov chain and from the concepts of runs and turning points presented in Literature 1 In addition, the stability of the dry/wet month transition probability matrix and its limit distribution are discussed. The results in this study provide a climatic background for making long-term forecasts. |
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