Scenarios for Community-based Approaches to Biodiversity Conservation: a case study from the Wet Tropics,Queensland, Australia

Natural resource management approaches that deliver biodiversity conservation remain elusive, with evidence of a persistent implementation gap between biodiversity science and conservation projects. Scenarios have been identified as potentially useful in addressing the complex issues underlying this implementation gap, but have been infrequently applied to biodiversity conservation. Our paper reports on action co-research to develop, apply and assess the efficacy of scenarios within a community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) approach to biodiversity conservation at Mission Beach, a key site within the globally significant Wet Tropics bioregion. We focused on the capacity of scenarios to address the issues of contested interests and uncertainty, aiming specifically to engage the community to build a cohesive vision. The scenarios' headline messages included a projected substantial loss of habitat in coastal vegetation communities that are highly valued by all stakeholders. Our assessment identified that the use of scenarios fulfilled the intended aims, resulting in a vision for biodiversity conservation that has substantial community support. Three factors contributed to this efficacy of the scenarios: (1) the focus on threat; (2) biodiversity science integration; and (3) simplicity in presentation. Further investigation of the potential of scenarios as tools to overcome the implementation gap in biodiversity conservation is recommended.